Art Market Review 2024

Now in its ninth edition, the Art Basel and UBS Art Market Report is the pre-eminent source for the assessment of the global art market’s size and underlying performance. Pulling together key trends and developments across the diverse sectors of the international art market is a huge undertaking and once again, the annual report makes compelling, and at times, sobering reading.

Viewed through the lens of the continued international political and economic uncertainty, a second successive year of contraction in the art market is not surprising. Many of the factors driving the performance of the market in 2023 remained for 2024, with the war in Ukraine and conflict in the Middle East continuing. Inflation and interest rates in several leading economies remained stubbornly high, hindered further by contentious elections in Europe and particularly the US which culminated in the reality of a second Trump administration.

The overall performance of 2023 was elevated largely through the unexpected recovery of the China and Hong Kong markets. As the territory was finally freed from the government’s zero COVID policy, the lifting of restrictions in early 2023 saw art fairs return to the calendar and auctions post particularly strong results as the backlog of high quality lots came to market, leading to a 9% increase in sales to $12.2bn (up from $11.2bn in 2022).

In 2024, there was no significant outlier with sales declining in all the art market’s key geographic regions. The year marked the third largest contraction of the global art market in the last 15 years, eclipsed only by the 2009 global recession (36% reduction), the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic (22% reduction), and level with the 12% fall recorded during the UK and European recession in 2012.

After a strong post-pandemic recovery in the two years up to 2022, 2024 marked the second year of slowing sales. As in 2023, a key driver in the global reduction in market size was the lower number of sales for the highest value works. As the world’s leading centres for buying and selling artwork, New York and London were especially affected through shifts in this price segment.

Despite the drop in value, the total number of global transactions grew by 3% to 40.5 million in 2024, building on similar growth in the 12 months prior which registered 39.4 million transactions (a 4% increase in volume from 2022). While public auction sales declined by a significant 25% and dealer sales by 6% in 2024, increased activity was recorded by both sectors in the lower-priced segment of the market.

A rare positive during 2024 was the success of dealers and auction houses in attracting new buyers actively seeking artwork at more accessible and affordable price levels. In an encouraging sign of the potential for a broader, more diversified market, dealers reported that 44% of buyers were new to their businesses. Auction sales of works under $5,000 grew in both value (up 7%) and number of lots sold (up 13%), while smaller dealers with a turnover of less than $250,000 reported a 17% increase in business – a significant and much needed development considering the dramatic fall in high-end sales.

Following the subdued auction results of 2023, particularly at the highest level of the market, the industry had hoped for a more robust return in 2024. Unfortunately, this did not materialise. The flagship auction houses, including Sotheby’s, Christie’s, Bonhams, and Phillips recorded revenues of $13.5bn across all segments in 2024, an 18% decline from $16.5bn in 2023.

In 2021 and 2022, sales at the upper end of the market had been significant in buoying the post-pandemic market. Unsurprisingly the on-going turbulent economic climate from 2023 continued to impact buyers and particularly sellers in 2024. Throughout the year there was a distinct absence of blue-chip works brought to auction, with sellers continuing to view the prevailing conditions as unfavourable. Buyers similarly demonstrated a cautious and more selective approach to purchases at the highest end, with the top ten items sold at auction comprising gilt-edged artists with cast-iron market pedigree, including two works each by Monet, Van Gogh and Magritte together with Warhol, Basquiat, Rothko and Ruscha.

A further indication of the conservative approach to high-end market transactions was the increase in private sales by auction houses, up 14% on the previous 12 months. Sotheby’s recorded an increase of 17% to $1.4bn and Christie’s a 41% increase to $1.5bn. As in previous periods of economic uncertainty, consigners appear to have felt more secure selling their works privately rather than test the uncertainty of the auction market, while remaining protected - as with the buyers of such sales - in the privacy and anonymity of the financial transaction.

In 2022, 24 works sold at auction above $50m including an unprecedented six lots selling above $100m.² In 2023, six works sold in excess of $50m of which two breached the coveted $100m threshold.² It was a very different picture in 2024, with just three works selling in excess of $50m of which one exceeded $100m. The top 100 lots sold at auction totalled $1.8bn in 2024, compared to $2.4bn in 2023 and $4.1bn in 2022. The number of works selling at auction at $10m and above also fell; by 39% during 2024 following a 27% decline in 2023.

A key driver in the high-end auction results of 2022 was exceptional single-owner sales, which mitigated any wider market slow-down. The unprecedented sale arranged via Christie’s New York in November 2022 of the collection of billionaire Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen ,³ saw 155 lots reach an extraordinary $1.62bn of which five works alone each exceeded $100m. While in November 2021 and June 2022, Sotheby’s New York sold the collection of real estate tycoon Harry Macklowe⁴ and his wife Linda, with the combined sales realising $922.2m.