Global risks – why schools must look up and out

It’s been reported that around 50 schools close each year due to rising costs and dwindling revenues¹, and one analysis suggests enrolment could decline by up to 13% by 2030². Demographics, expectations of modern schooling, global inflation, energy prices, building materials, visa changes, Brexit – all just some of the numerous contributing challenges cited in industry commentary. Many schools also highlight concerns such as extreme weather, wellbeing challenges, cyber risks, reputation and/or travel disruption when discussing operational pressures.

These are just a few of the impacts caused by global tensions. Yes, global risks are having an impact on schools domestically, shaping the day-to-day reality.

Independent schools are operating in a far more volatile, complex, and interconnected environment than ever before but with good risk management processes, not only can many short-term risks be managed effectively but resilience can be built against longer-term risks and even opportunities created.

• The areas where resilience matters most: governance, financial sustainability, cyber security, safeguarding, workforce stability and estate readiness.
• Short‑term pressures: geopolitical instability, rising costs, cyber threats, misinformation, and extreme weather - all of which are already affecting school operations, budgets and community cohesion.
• Long‑term risks: climate impacts, AI‑driven threats, infrastructure fragility and slower economic growth - issues that will shape estate planning, digital strategy and long‑term sustainability.

Independent schools are operating in a far more volatile, complex, and interconnected environment than ever before but with good risk management processes, not only can many short-term risks be managed effectively but resilience can be built against longer-term risks and even opportunities created.

Schools that anticipate change, rather than react to it, have an opportunity to turn uncertainty into advantage. Risk has the potential to become a source of differentiation, whether through smarter procurement, stronger digital resilience, flexible fee strategies or investment in future-ready estates and skills.

Improving resilience can start with:

• Building an understanding of how global risks translate into local vulnerabilities.
• Strengthening financial governance to support long-term stability to help with avoiding the common pitfalls that lead to school closures.
• Ensuring operational resilience across IT, safeguarding and workforce planning.
• Preparing estates and people for climate, digital and societal change.
• Stress testing risk management approaches against emerging threats.

Schools have an obligation to minimise risk and keep people and estates safe, and brokers and insurers have a responsibility to work in partnership with them to help achieve it. We should encourage and support schools to work with their broker and insurer, and to frequently assess, record, manage and review their risks and consider new and emerging risks they haven’t considered before.

Ecclesiastical can help in several ways:

• Risk identification, assessment and management support, through access to our risk library, which includes risk assessment templates and guidance on specific topics.
• Via access to our risk advice line that connects clients with experienced surveyors. This can be used prior to plans being finalised – as a consultant service. This might be to discuss possible new activities, building projects or changes to buildings.
• By strengthening strategic risk management with our Enterprise Risk Management toolkit, available online. Clients can also benefit from tailored 121 consultancy to help build long-term resilience³.
• Providing assistance with claims defence, utilising risk assessments that are up-to-date, which have been actioned and where actions are accurately documented.
• Sharing our list of preferred suppliers, carefully selected for their expertise in specific trades.
• Through providing insurance solutions that transfer risk to a policy, such as Property Damage, Business interruption, Liabilities, Governors’ trustee’ and management liability, Professional Indemnity cover and PR crisis communication⁴.

In this landscape, resilience isn’t just protection, it’s a strategic capability that could help define which schools remain stable, trusted and competitive in the years ahead.

¹ btguk.com

² Article - The shifting landscape of UK independent schools - Cairneagle

³ Our Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) support is a non-regulated activity providing optional support to you outside of our insurance products. Consultancy services may carry an additional charge and be subject to conditions.

⁴ Product cover may carry exclusions, conditions and/or be subject to underwriting and not all risks can be insured.